Advancing Agricultural Production With Machine Learning Analytics: Yield Determinants for California's Almond Orchards.

Agricultural productivity is subject to various stressors, including abiotic and biotic threats, many of which are exacerbated by a changing climate, thereby affecting long-term sustainability. The productivity of tree crops such as almond orchards, is particularly complex. To understand and mitigate these threats requires a collection of multi-layer large data sets, and advanced analytics is also critical to integrate these highly heterogeneous datasets to generate insights about the key constraints on the yields at tree and field scales. Here we used a machine learning approach to investigate the determinants of almond yield variation in California's almond orchards, based on a unique 10-year dataset of field measurements of light interception and almond yield along with meteorological data. We found that overall the maximum almond yield was highly dependent on light interception, e.g., with each one percent increase in light interception resulting in an increase of 57.9 lbs/acre in the potential yield. Light interception was highest for mature sites with higher long term mean spring incoming solar radiation (SRAD), and lowest for younger orchards when March maximum temperature was lower than 19°C. However, at any given level of light interception, actual yield often falls significantly below full yield potential, driven mostly by tree age, temperature profiles in June and winter, summer mean daily maximum vapor pressure deficit (VPDmax), and SRAD. Utilizing a full random forest model, 82% (±1%) of yield variation could be explained when using a sixfold cross validation, with a RMSE of 480 ± 9 lbs/acre. When excluding light interception from the predictors, overall orchard characteristics (such as age, location, and tree density) and inclusive meteorological variables could still explain 78% of yield variation. The model analysis also showed that warmer winter conditions often limited mature orchards from reaching maximum yield potential and summer VPDmax beyond 40 hPa significantly limited the yield. Our findings through the machine learning approach improved our understanding of the complex interaction between climate, canopy light interception, and almond nut production, and demonstrated a relatively robust predictability of almond yield. This will ultimately benefit data-driven climate adaptation and orchard nutrient management approaches

Differences in proleptic and epicormic shoot structures in relation to water deficit and growth rate in almond trees (Prunus dulcis)

UMR 1334 AGAP : Equipe AFEF "Architecture et Fonctionnement des Espèces fruitières" ; Team AFFS "Architecture and Functioning of Fruit Species"International audienceBackground and Aims Shoot characteristics differ depending on the meristem tissue that they originate from and environmental conditions during their development. This study focused on the effects of plant water status on axillary meristem fate and flowering patterns along proleptic and epicormic shoots, as well as on shoot growth rates on 'Nonpareil' almond trees (Prunus dulcis). The aims were (1) to characterize the structural differences between pro-leptic and epicormic shoots, (2) to determine whether water deficits modify shoot structures differently depending on shoot type, and (3) to determine whether shoot structures are related to shoot growth rates. Methods A hidden semi-Markov model of the axillary meristem fate and number of flower buds per node was built for two shoot types growing on trees exposed to three plant water status treatments. The models segmented observed shoots into successive homogeneous zones, which were compared between treatments. Shoot growth rates were cal-culated from shoot extension measurements made during the growing season. Key Results Proleptic shoots had seven successive homogeneous zones while epicormic shoots had five zones. Shoot structures were associated with changes in growth rate over the season. Water deficit (1) affected the occurrence and lengths of the first zones of proleptic shoots, but only the occurrence of the third zone was reduced in epicormic shoots; (2) had a minor effect on zone flowering patterns and did not modify shoot or zone composition of axillary meristem fates; and (3) reduced growth rates, although patterns over the season were similar among treatments. Conclusions Two meristem types, with different latency durations, produced shoots with different growth rates and distinct structures. Differences between shoot type structure responses to water deficit appeared to reflect their onto-genetic characteristics and/or resource availability for their development. Tree water deficit appeared to stimulate a more rapid progression through ontogenetic states

Yield in almond is related more to the abundance of flowers than the relative number of flowers that set fruit

Almond tree yield is a function of the number of flowers on a tree and the percentage of flowers that set fruit. Almonds are borne on spurs (short proleptic shoots that can have both leaves and flowers). Almond tree spur dynamics research has documented that previous year spur leaf area is a predictive parameter for year-to-year spur survival, spur flowering and to a lesser extent spur fruiting, while previous year fruit bearing has a negative impact on subsequent year flowering. However, a question remained about whether yields are more dependent on flower numbers or relative fruit set of the flowers that are present. The aim of the present work was to compare the importance of flower abundance with that of relative fruit set in determining the productivity of a population of tagged spurs in almond trees over a 6-year period. Overall tree yield among years was more sensitive to total number of flowers on a tree rather than relative fruit set. These results emphasize the importance of maintaining large populations of healthy flowering spurs for sustained high production in almond orchards

Yield in almond is related more to the abundance of flowers than the relative number of flowers that set fruit

Almond tree yield is a function of the number of flowers on a tree and the percentage of flowers that set fruit. Almonds are borne on spurs (short proleptic shoots that can have both leaves and flowers). Almond tree spur dynamics research has documented that previous year spur leaf area is a predictive parameter for year-to-year spur survival, spur flowering and to a lesser extent spur fruiting, while previous year fruit bearing has a negative impact on subsequent year flowering. However, a question remained about whether yields are more dependent on flower numbers or relative fruit set of the flowers that are present. The aim of the present work was to compare the importance of flower abundance with that of relative fruit set in determining the productivity of a population of tagged spurs in almond trees over a 6-year period. Overall tree yield among years was more sensitive to total number of flowers on a tree rather than relative fruit set. These results emphasize the importance of maintaining large populations of healthy flowering spurs for sustained high production in almond orchards

Plant water stress, leaf temperature, and spider mite (Acari: Tetranychidae) outbreaks in California vineyards

We evaluated the relationships between plant water status and leaf temperature, and between leaf temperature and spider mite (Acari: Tetranychidae) and predatory mite (Acari: Phytoseiidae) populations in eight vineyards in California in 2006 and 2007. Temperature of south-facing leaves increased significantly by 0.8°C for every 1.0°C increase in ambient air temperature, and by 5.3°C for every one MPa drop in leaf water potential. Peak population densities of Pacific spider mite, Tetranychus pacificus McGregor, increased significantly with increasing frequency of leaf temperatures above 31°C. In contrast, peak population densities of Willamette spider mite, Eotetranychus willamettei (McGregor), showed no relationship with the frequency of leaf temperatures above 31°C. This differential relationship between the two mite species and high leaf temperatures is consistent with their upper thresholds for development, which are 40°C for T. pacificus and 31°C for E. willamettei, as identified in a previous study. Predatory mite population densities showed no relationship with peak population densities of either spider mite species during the analysis period, but decreased with the frequency of leaf temperatures above 31°C. In addition, predatory mite population densities were significantly higher on south-facing than interior leaves after adjusting for the effect of leaf temperature. These results help to explain why outbreaks of T. pacificus occur in warmer or water-stressed vineyards, whereas E. willamettei develops higher populations in cooler or well-irrigated vineyards. In addition, these results suggest that regulated deficit irrigation should be implemented with caution, especially in those vineyards with a high risk of T. pacificus outbreaks

Removing English Walnut (Juglans Regia) Ready-to-Use Shelled Walnuts Consumption Barriers

Because of the vast information on health benefits and the urbanization impact changes in eating habits, the demand for ready-to-use shelled walnuts as a convenient, healthy, and nutritious snack food is increasing all over the world. However, shelled nuts sold as halves or pieces in ‘ready-to-use’ small packages are more susceptible to pellicle darkening and rancidity than their in-shell equivalents. Currently, about two-thirds of the USA crop is exported, and ~66% of these exports are sold as shelled ‘ready to use’, and its demand is increasing. Yet, this package style is generating quality challenges due to the darkening and rancidification of the kernel pellicle. Protection against kernel color quality loss and rancidity during postharvest handling, even at warm temperatures, can be accomplished at 6 kPa (%) oxygen or less for ‘Chandler’ and 3 kPa or less for ‘Howard’ and ‘Tulare’. The application of the ‘cold chain’ principle and/or low oxygen technology is unpractical for large cropping systems. Thus, a useful quality control system to rank the lots based on their potential visual and sensory quality is important. Then, the lots can be selected based on their potential quality, match market destinations, and are subjected to proper postharvest technologies